Sniffing Out Survival: Leicester’s Foxes Fight to Stay in the Barclays Women’s Super League
Five games and just under two months stand between Leicester City and relegation. They’re currently stuck in a demoralising eight-game losing streak, and the threat of dropping out of the Barclays Women’s Super League has shifted from a distant anxiety to an imminent threat.
But all is not lost. Even sitting bottom of the table with just nine points painstakingly earned from 18 games (two wins and three draws), Leicester continue to have two clear paths to stay up. The first is straightforward: the Foxes could simply claw back enough points from their remaining league fixtures, which is easier said than done.
Goals in Short Supply
The maths of the matter is simple. There’s a single relegation spot, and only a handful of teams have struggled enough for Leicester to catch, wrenching themselves out of the drop zone.
Liverpool, Aston Villa, Everton, London City Lionesses and Brighton are theoretically beatable. However, it would take a near-perfect run from a team that’s stumbled plenty so far this season. Therefore, West Ham United, sitting on what Leicester will hope is an unlucky 13 points, looks like the most viable target.
Even that will be a tall order. Most pressingly, it will require a significant uptick in goal-scoring.
The Foxes are currently averaging just 0.5 goals per game. Shannon O’Brien and Noémie Mouchon accounted for five of the nine scored, while Emily van Egmond, Samantha Tierney, Alisha Lehmann, Ashleigh Neville, and Sari Kees peppered in the rest.
Unfortunately, it’s simply not enough. They managed only five shots in their display against Brighton, squandered a first-half lead to Aston Villa, and failed to deliver against Liverpool, extending their Barclays Women’s Super League drought to three games and 319 minutes of goalless action.
It’s not for a lack of commitment. Rick Passmoor’s approach of vertical, direct football, high-pressing defence, and aggressive formation tinkering is proactive, aiming to turn potential into points. But the results have yet to materialise. In fact, they’ve found the net just twice this year, and one of them came courtesy of an own goal by West Ham’s Eva Nyström. So, how exactly do they get out of this fight?
Mapping Out Leicester’s Last-Minute Miracle Mission
In a nutshell, the Foxes need a rapid turnaround. With an average possession of just 37% and a meager 7.67 shots per game, creating few chances. That 7% conversion rate is only making the situation worse, but it’s far from the only issue.
Defensively, things aren’t much better. They’ve conceded four times more often than they’ve scored, leaving a sobering goal difference of -27. Their xGA (Expected Goals Against) going forward? Nearly two goals a game at 1.84. On top of that, they face Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, and London City Lionesses. There are no easy games in that lineup.
Of the lot, London City Lionesses and Everton represent Leicester’s best play for salvation. The Toffees have come unstuck in their last two outings, while the London City Lionesses have gone six games without a single victory to sink their teeth into.
With Everton captain Megan Finnegan out with an ACL injury, and London’s attacking midfielder Kosovare Asllani absent alongside several other key players, they’re rarely this vulnerable.
It’s not even enough for the Foxes to succeed; West Ham will probably need to fail as well for this great escape to make it through the wire. They have Liverpool, Aston Villa and Man City to face. One win would leave Leicester needing to gain seven points from their remaining four games.
That adds up to three wins, or two wins and a duo of draws, to make the cut. So realistically, anything short of a complete collapse by the Hammers would make this war of attrition extremely difficult.
Is it hopeless? Not quite.
There are teams Leicester can beat while West Ham have been inconsistent, and the talent in the squad is clear. For instance, Hannah Cain is averaging 1.44 shots per 90 minutes and feels primed to taste the back of the net once more. Meanwhile, Shannon O’Brien and Noémie Mouchon have combined for five goals from 13 shots on target.
More accuracy is needed, but the window of opportunity is far from closed. And of course, there is another way, thanks to the introduction of the BWSL promotional play-off.
There are teams Leicester can beat while West Ham have been inconsistent, and the talent in the squad is clear. For instance, Hannah Cain is averaging 1.44 shots per 90 minutes and feels primed to taste the back of the net once more. Meanwhile, Shannon O’Brien and Noémie Mouchon have combined for five goals from 13 shots on target.
More accuracy is needed, but the window of opportunity is far from closed. And of course, there is another way, thanks to the introduction of the BWSL promotional play-off.
Another Lifeline: The BWSL Play-Off That Could Save The Season
To accommodate the BWSL expansion from 12 to 14 teams next year, the top two sides from BWSL2 will be automatically promoted. Then, on Saturday 23rd May, the team that finishes third in BWSL2 will face the lowest-ranked top-flight team. So, unless Leicester can salvage enough from their remaining campaign, they will find themselves in one final showdown to retain their spot.
It will be a formidable task.
The BWSL2 podium race has been fiercely contested, with Birmingham City, Charlton, and Crystal Palace keeping fans on the edge of their seats. The play-offs will be hosted by the second division runners-up, and Leicester’s struggles away from home makes things even harder, as they’ve managed just 22% of their goals outside King Power Stadium.
Still, the Foxes would surely welcome a second chance if it comes their way, and it could turn out to be their best shot at survival.
With those two escape routes in mind, Leicester fans have no reason to panic. At least not just yet. The opportunity is there, and the talent is there. There’s time to piece everything together and build on the glimpses of potential we’ve seen this season before it’s too late.
Word credit: Ben Gibson
