The Data behind the Barclays WSL2 season

Birmingham’s Attacking Approach Pays off as Weerden Propels Palace to Promotion – BWSL2 Season Recap

The curtain has fallen on the BWSL2 in 2025-26, with a thrilling conclusion to the title race rounding off the campaign.

In a straight shoot-out for the title, Birmingham City reigned supreme, with their 2-0 win over Charlton Athletic securing the crown and earning them promotion to the BWSL.

Charlton, meanwhile, missed out on a place in the top two, with Crystal Palace pipping them into second place and sealing an immediate return to the top flight after producing a remarkable second half of the season.

Going into Saturday’s finale, the Eagles knew a win would take them up. They achieved their goal with an emphatic 6-1 win over already-relegated Portsmouth and ended up finishing level with champions Birmingham on 44 points, although an inferior goal difference stopped them from getting their hands on the trophy.

While Birmingham and Palace celebrate, Charlton’s hopes of making it to the BWSL are not over yet, with a promotion-relegation play-off still to come against Leicester City, whose bottom-place finish in the BWSL has already been confirmed.

With a thrilling BWSL2 season now done and dusted, we have used Opta data to look at the best performers and biggest stories from a dramatic campaign, and also used the statistics to assess how the dramatic finish played out.

Birmingham Bounce Back

Despite making their final-day task much more difficult by dropping points in a shock 3-0 loss to Ipswich Town on matchday 21, Birmingham were more than up to the challenge.

And the Blues’ victory secured a return to the BWSL for the first time since 2021-22.

Birmingham kept the pressure on Charlton from the very start on the final day, racking up 17 shots worth 1.8 expected goals (xG), and though only five of those were on target, Wilma Leidhammar clinically converted both of hers.

The eventual champions had put out a statement of intent from the very start of the campaign, beating Bristol City 5-1 on the opening day, and it was only in the final nine games that their goals started to dry up.

Even still, they finished as the second-highest scorers (46), with only the Robins (47) scoring more, thanks to a 4-0 victory over Southampton.

Birmingham led the way in terms of xG (41.8), total shots (431), efforts on target (147), big chances (53) and touches in the opposition box (708), as they adopted a front-foot approach that so often caught their opponents cold.

Eight times this term, they scored three or more goals in a single game, with three of those matches seeing them hit the back of the net five times.

Amy Merricks’ team averaged 58.8% possession, which was only bettered by Nottingham Forest (59.1%), but a league-high 52% of their successful passes came in the opposition half of the pitch.

And when they didn’t have the ball, they made sure their opponents weren’t comfortable. Birmingham tallied the most high turnovers (269) in the division, pressing their opponents more often 40m from their own goal than any other side, also attempting a league-high 61 shots and scoring the most goals (9) from these situations.

Most impressive was Birmingham’s consistency; they split their 14 wins – a league-high – equally between home and away matches, with their seven victories on the road also more than any other team managed.

Key to their success was Lily Crosthwaite, who scored eight goals and provided six assists.

She got her eight goals from 4.1 xG, an overperformance of 3.9, hitting 17 of her 36 shots on target, while only Veatriki Sarri, who scored seven times, had more overall attempts on goal (63).

Crosthwaite was also an important component in linking the play, with 43 chances created – only Emily Syrne (63) and Ashleigh Weerden (61) set up more chances than her across all players in 2025-26.

Eagles’ Late-Season Soar

Palace had an extremely rough start to 2025-26 as they readjusted to life in the BWSL2, but after winning just one of their first eight outings, they found their footing.

It was a stunning turnaround from Jo Potter in her first season at the helm, with Palace losing just one of their last 14 matches (W12 D1). They went unbeaten in their final eight games to complete the push into the automatic promotion spots.

Going into the final day, Palace knew top spot was out of their hands, needing a win themselves as well as a draw between Birmingham and Charlton, or at least a big swing in goal difference.

The nerves were heightened when they went behind early against Portsmouth, but the response was superb as they managed to win by a five-goal margin, even though it ultimately wasn’t quite enough to lift the trophy.

Palace’s promotion on the final day came about because they certainly took a no-holds-barred approach in the final third. They had 24 shots, 13 of which were on target, while another two hit the woodwork, and they racked up 5.1 xG.

Weerden was so often their creative force this season and she chipped in with two goals on the final day to take her tally to seven for the season.

But Annabel Blanchard took on the playmaker mantle against Portsmouth, creating seven chances – the joint-most a player managed in a single BWSL2 game this season.

As for Charlton, they let a nine-point lead at the top of the table slip through their fingers after failing to win any of their final four matches (D1 L3), but their hopes of playing in the BWSL for the first time are not over yet.

They will face Leicester in one last attempt to gain promotion, with the Foxes also struggling for form, having lost their last 11 matches, conceding 39 goals in that run.

Charlton were the sixth-highest goalscorers this season (31 goals), but they were best recognised for having the competition’s sternest defence, conceding just 21 times.

Only Birmingham could match their eight clean sheets, but Charlton conceded fewer goals than expected.

Having given up an expected goals against (xGA) total of 23.5 from their 227 shots faced – the third-fewest in the league – they will be relying on their resolute backline once more in the high-stakes play-off.

Pompey’s Fate Sealed

Portsmouth knew going into the final day that they wouldn’t be playing in the BWSL2 next season, having accrued just 14 points, with only four wins on the board.

They’d already had a say in the title race before struggling against Palace, courtesy of beating Charlton 2-0 back in March, but their leaky defence meant they were always likely to be fighting at the wrong end of the table this season.

Portsmouth conceded 53 goals, 10 more than second-worst Sheffield United, while they kept just two clean sheets – only the Blades kept fewer.

Meg Hornby caught the eye for Portsmouth at the other end, finishing joint-fourth in the scoring charts with eight goals. She scored their opener against Palace, netting with her only shot, and it was a remarkable finish given the opportunity was worth just 0.01 xG.

The Eye-Catchers

Bristol City finished the season as the highest scorers, just pipping Birmingham on the final day, but it was hardly a surprise with two of their players hitting double figures.

Lexi Lloyd-Smith won the Golden Boot with 11 goals, massively overperforming her 5.7 xG (+5.3).

She averaged a goal every 136.4 minutes; among players to score at least five goals, only Leidhammar (108.4) boasted a better scoring rate.

Her team-mate Rio Hardy was only one goal behind, scoring 10 from just 21 shots on target as she scored at a rate of once every 157.8 minutes.

The brilliant Weerden, meanwhile, was the only player to hit double figures for assists, getting 10 for the season from 61 chances created. Of those, 44 came from open play, with no other player in the league bettering that total.

Crosthwaite ranked second in that statistical category on 43, with Emily Syme (38) and Blanchard (31) the only other players in the division to craft more than 30 such opportunities.

Weerden racked up 7.1 expected assists (xA), a total only bettered by Syme (7.3), who finished with nine assists. Weerden, however, had the biggest overperformance at +2.9, showing she was somewhat aided by above-average finishing from her team-mates to top the creative charts.

As mentioned, Charlton’s defence was difficult to breach, with Sophie Whitehouse standing strong as their last line of defence. She was present for all eight of Charlton’s clean sheets, conceding just 21 goals.

She made 51 saves in total from 69 shots on target faced, and according to Opta’s expected goals on target (xGoT) model, Whitehouse prevented 3.9 goals this season, so she goes into the crucial play-off clash with strong momentum.

Word credit: OptaAnalyst