Season Defining Weekend in the BWSL?

BWSL Matchday 20: Five Teams Facing a Season-Changing Weekend

It’s not over ‘til it’s over. The Barclays Women’s Super League returns this weekend and we’re right at the business end of what’s been a gripping BWSL season. With just a handful of matchdays left, there are still five sides in particular with loads on the line.

Those Champions League spots, and the battle to avoid relegation, are still in play. Here are the teams with the most to win, and the most to lose, this weekend.

Chelsea Eye Escape From the Stay-Home Blues

Mathematically, there are only three teams fighting for the remaining Champions League spots next year. One place is already signed, sealed and delivered thanks to an immovable Man City, leaving Chelsea, Arsenal and Man United to scrap it out for the final two.

And right now Chelsea are in a pretty comfortable spot. They’re second place in the league with 40 points, have a two-point lead on Arsenal and Man United and haven’t lost any of their last five BWSL outings. Only a draw to London City Lionesses adds a blemish to their otherwise flawless recent form.

Up next they’ve got Everton, whose most recent outings saw them lose to both Liverpool and Man United, conceding five goals along the way.

Combine that with the motivation of a Chelsea side that have just been knocked out of this year’s Champions League play-offs after a dramatic back-and-forth battle with Arsenal, add in superb recent performances from the likes of Lauren James and Sjoeke Nüsken, and it seems unlikely the Toffees will be sweet enough to keep Chelsea stuck at home.

Arsenal on the Hunt: Foxes, Fixtures and Five Games to Go

Thanks to a heroic effort in the Champions League, Arsenal now face Lyon in a spellbinding showdown over the next couple of weekends. That means they still have five BWSL games left to play this season, giving them plenty of opportunity to secure a place on the podium and set up another shot at European glory next year.

This means Manchester United would need to perform better in three games than the Gunners can in five to take their place. And given Arsenal are five for five in their last BWSL outings, that’s a tall order. It would require the Red Devils to burn brighter than they have done all season, while Arsenal would need to leave their firepower at home over the next few weeks.

The next battle for the Gunners sees them try to dig out some points from the Foxes. That one actually won’t take place this weekend because of their European date with destiny, it’s instead scheduled for Wednesday 29th April.

Still, make no mistake, this weekend is massive for Arsenal, with other results set to have a big say on just how important that game ends up being. On paper, though, their chances look excellent.

Aside from Arsenal’s recent form, there’s the prospect of a returning Leah Williamson, while Alessia Russo arrives hot off a game-winning goal against Iceland in World Cup qualifying.

Add in the fact that last place Leicester have never beaten Arsenal in the Barclays Women’s Super League and it looks likely the Gunners will simply need to turn up and do their job to take something from the game.

Manchester United’s Steep Road to Europe

What initially looks like a fairly clear route to the Champions League for Manchester United appears a lot more treacherous when you dig into the details. While the Red Devils have been steady enough to sit fourth with 38 points, the remaining spots look increasingly slippery to grasp.

Arsenal have five more games in hand, and with them two extra chances to pull away. Add in the gap in recent form, Arsenal unbeaten in their last five while United have won just three of theirs, plus a nine goal difference advantage in Arsenal’s favour, and the scale of the task becomes clearer.

Manchester City, meanwhile, are already out of reach with a nine-point lead at the top. Chelsea, right now, are their best option. And when besting the Blues is your easiest path, you’re in for a rough ride.

Still, it’s not a done deal, and the rest of their road to European redemption, especially poignant after that heartbreaking 5-3 loss to Bayern a few weeks back, begins at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

On paper, the stats are firmly on their side. Spurs may only be a place below Manchester United, but that only highlights the gulf between the best and the rest in this year’s Premier League, with a nine-point gap separating fourth and fifth.

Add in Tottenham’s -5 goal difference compared to United’s healthy +17, and the fact Spurs have lost four of their last five matches, and it becomes clear that, right now, the London side’s season has largely gone off the rails. Manchester United may have quite the climb ahead of them, but the first step should be sturdy enough to maintain a foothold on their European aspirations.

Endangered Foxes: Leicester’s Fight for Survival Enters the Endgame

We’re not going to sugarcoat it, the Foxes as a BWSL1 side are increasingly looking like an endangered species. They’ve dug themselves into an eight-game losing streak, have managed just two wins and three draws all season for a total of nine points, and are averaging 0.5 goals per game, a record only worsened by a current run of 319 minutes without a goal in the Barclays Women’s Super League.

No team has more riding on this weekend than them. In their sights is West Ham United who sit just above the drop zone at 13 points, meaning there’s four games to make up a four-point deficit. So, every match is absolutely crucial for their survival. And they’ve got a busy few days ahead of them.

Before they take on Arsenal next Wednesday, Leicester will have what is arguably their best chance to pick up some points before it’s too late against the London City Lionesses. They’re in rough form themselves right now, having failed to win any of their last six games, although a gutsy 1-1 draw with Chelsea, secured by a late equaliser from Isobel Goodwin, will at least give Leicester something to think about.

It’ll be a tough game. For whatever London City Lionesses’ flaws, they’re still outperforming the Foxes across every key statistical metric except goals saved.

Even then, Janina-Leitzig’s 59 goals saved only underline how much pressure Leicester have been under, with an overall goal difference of -27 highlighting just how fragile they’ve been at the back.

Still, there’s hope. Rick Passmoor has been trying to shift the needle by experimenting with different formations and a more vertical, high-pressing style of play, and there is attacking depth in the likes of Shannon O’Brien and Noémie Mouchon.

But what may ultimately make the difference is how the Foxes handle the pressure. If they fold, they’re off to a last-chance playoff with the team that finishes third in BWSL2. If they stick with their bolder approach, it might just pay off in points.

Hammering Out Survival: West Ham’s Fight Goes to the Wire

The Hammers won’t be knocking on the door of the Champions League next year, and that top spot must look like a dot on the horizon from where they’re currently sitting. In fact, in 11th place with just 13 points all season, they’re not going to be troubling their form from previous campaigns either.

But West Ham do still have one final accolade left to fight for, and that’s another season in the top flight. It’s a straight fight between them and a struggling Leicester, with just four points separating the two sides in the battle to avoid finishing bottom and a potential playoff date with destiny.

The Foxes have four games to play, West Ham have three. That means if Leicester can win this weekend, the Hammers could quickly find that their cushion hardens into something far less comfortable if they can’t muster up some late-season points of their own.

And just like Leicester, the most compelling opportunity may well come this Sunday. They face Liverpool, who sit just above them in the standings. Considering they’ve managed to grind both London City Lionesses and Manchester United to draws in recent weeks, that at least feels achievable.

Oona Siren leads the league in tackles with 64 so far this season, Katrina Gorry isn’t far behind on 45, and Kinga Szemik has averaged a very solid 2.95 saves per game. If they can keep things tight at that level, they’ll more than likely come away with a point, which would only make life harder for Leicester in the survival scrap.

If they can win, even better, but with just three victories all season, their best chance is likely to stick to what has kept them alive so far. With only 16 goals scored all year, it’s clear their strongest weapon is, and probably has to remain, a solid defence.