Opta SuperComputers' BWSL and BWSL2 Predictions
Man City closing in on title, who will be relegated, and which team will gain promotion?
The BWSL and BWSL2 seasons are heading for dramatic finales, with titles, European qualification and relegation still to be settled.
Another fantastic season of BWSL and BWSL2 action is drawing to a close, and there is still plenty of drama in store.
Manchester City look set to get their hands on the BWSL title. With three games left to play, they are nine points clear of defending champions Chelsea.
City need a maximum of five points to wrap up their first WSL title in 10 years, with fixtures coming up against Brighton & Hove Albion (A), Liverpool (H) and West Ham United (A).
Arsenal, who also have a UEFA Women’s Champions League semi-final – and potentially a second straight final – to contend with in a hectic schedule to close out their campaign, have two games in hand on Man City, who are so close to ending Chelsea’s monopoly in this competition.
There could be plenty of twists to come in the European race, though, with Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United only separated by two points. At the bottom, Leicester City are clinging on, but they are four points adrift of safety. The bottom club in the top flight will face a relegation play-off against the third-placed team in BWSL2.
It is all to play for at the top of the second tier, too. Birmingham City sit top, but only ahead of Charlton Athletic on goal difference. Those two teams will meet in a potential winner-take-all clash on the final day of the season, while Crystal Palace are just three points behind.
Here, we use Opta supercomputer data and rich insights to delve into how these leagues could shape up.
Man City’s title to lose
With a 98.9% chance of getting their hands on their first BWSL title since 2016, Man City are overwhelming favourites.
City’s triumph a decade ago remains the club’s only BWSL title.
Since then, Chelsea have won seven BWSL crowns, plus a Spring Series, with Arsenal the last team other than the Blues to triumph, back in 2018-19.
After such a disappointing campaign last year, with Man City missing out on Europe, it has been a fantastic first season in charge for Andree Jeglertz.
He has overseen 16 league wins, four more than any other team this term, with his team suffering only two defeats.
City have plundered 55 goals, 17 more than second-best Arsenal, from a league-leading 50.1 expected goals. That xG total is 10.5 clear of Chelsea, who rank second with 39.6 xG.
And City have been easy on the eye, too, averaging the longest open-play sequences (10.4s) in the WSL this season, as well as recording the most open-play sequences of 10+ passes (245), while they also rank third for field tilt (63%) behind Arsenal (76%) and Chelsea (68%).
They have won 16 of their last 18 WSL games (D1 L1) and have won each of their last 17 matches when taking the lead at any stage – the Citizens and Man Utd are the only two teams that have not lost a single point from a winning position this term.
This supreme form has seen them accumulate 49 points, with Chelsea on 40, but the leaders have a far superior goal difference (+40 to +18), and the Blues are actually more likely to finish third (68.2%) than second (17.2%) according to Opta’s model.
Arsenal’s chance of snatching the title from Man City’s grasp is 1.1%, but the Gunners do have an 81.3% probability of finishing in the top two, with that likelihood having risen sharply in the last month.
However, the Gunners have more than just the BWSL to contend with…
Arsenal and Chelsea to edge out Man Utd in race for Europe
Arsenal are the only English team left in the Champions League, and Renee Slegers’ side are, of course, the reigning European champions.
But will their busy schedule impact their chances of a top-three finish?
Opta’s supercomputer does not think so, with the Gunners placing in the top three in 98.7% of its simulations, but it is worth taking into account that Arsenal have to play seven games in 20 days.
Should the Gunners overcome eight-time European champions Lyon in their two-legged Champions League semi-final tie, then it will be eight matches in the space of four weeks.
Between their two meetings with Lyon, Arsenal host lowly Leicester. They then take on Brighton, Aston Villa and Everton before rounding out their campaign against Liverpool.
The maximum points haul they can achieve is 53, so to snatch the title, they would need Man City to seriously slip up while winning all of their own games. But the Gunners are the clear favourites, excluding City, to qualify for Europe.
Arsenal’s defence has been their bedrock this term, with no other BWSL team having kept more clean sheets (the Gunners have kept eight shutouts, level with Chelsea).
They have only shipped 12 goals, from 12.8 xG against – both league-low marks. Arsenal have conceded only 128 shots, 48 fewer than any other team, and just 46 shots on target.
Chelsea are not the dominant force they were last season, but Opta’s prediction model still hands them an 85.4% likelihood of sealing Champions League qualification.
Then it’s Man Utd. The Red Devils sit fourth, though they have lost each of their last three matches in all competitions, their outright longest run as a BWSL team.
Like Arsenal, Man Utd have 38 points, but they have played two games more than the Gunners.
Man Utd’s chance of finishing in the top three is 16%, so they are certainly outsiders, but they cannot be counted out entirely.
Leicester destined for relegation/promotion play-off
With the BWSL expanding to 14 teams next season, the top two in the BWSL2 will gain automatic promotion, but the side that finishes third will take on the bottom-placed club in the top tier to determine who takes the final spot.
As it stands, the Opta supercomputer’s next most common occurrence, after Man City winning the title, is Leicester finishing bottom of the pile (92.7%).
The Foxes do have a game in hand on their relegation rivals, but their run-in includes clashes with London City Lionesses, Arsenal, Chelsea and Everton.
With just two wins to their name this term – and only nine points, having scored just nine goals – it seems unlikely the Foxes will be able to claw themselves out of this hole.
West Ham occupy 11th, and the supercomputer determines they will stay there (86.8%), though there is a miniscule chance (0.1%) they could finish as high as eighth.
It has been a dismal season for Liverpool, but the Reds are forecasted to stay up, with 10th their most likely finishing position (65.9%).
London City, on the other hand, have enjoyed a brilliant campaign after promotion last year, and they are predicted to close out the season in sixth place (44.3%).
Shaw to smash single-season scoring record?
Khadija ‘Bunny’ Shaw is enjoying yet another exceptional season, but unlike previous campaigns, she looks near certain to end as a title-winner.
Currently six goals clear of any other player in the BWSL Golden Boot race, Shaw is expected to become the first player in the history of the competition to win the goalscoring charts in three separate seasons.
With 18 goals in 19 appearances, Shaw needs five goals across City’s remaining three WSL games of 2025-26 to break the all-time BWSL single-season goalscoring record, and just four to equal the 22-goal efforts of Rachel Daly in 2022-23 and Vivianne Miedema in 2018-19.
Three games against teams entrenched in the lower reaches of the table present Shaw with a good opportunity to create more history for herself, too.
Plus, her record against Brighton, Liverpool and West Ham in the BWSL is incredible.
In a total of 22 previous appearances against Brighton, Liverpool and West Ham combined, Shaw has scored 25 goals, averaging a goal every 63 minutes.
One of her most impressive performances in a Man City shirt came in April 2022 versus Brighton, when she scored four goals in a 7-2 league victory – replicating that in City’s meeting with them on Saturday would be enough to take her level with Daly and Miedema’s record.
Shaw’s club-mate Miedema, meanwhile, is on 97 BWSL goals, so needs just three more to become the first player to hit a century of strikes in the competition.
Three-horse BWSL2 promotion race going to the wire
The title fight in the BWSL2 is extraordinary.
Birmingham and Charlton are locked on 41 points apiece after 20 games, though the Blues hold the edge thanks to their +23 goal difference, compared to Charlton’s +12.
To buoy Birmingham further, Charlton have lost three of their last four league matches, while the Blues have won four of their last five. The leaders are hitting form at just the right time.
Charlton have built their promotion push on a rock-solid defence, which has conceded a league-best 17 goals (Birmingham have shipped 21).
However, Charlton have overperformed their 19.6 xGA by over two goals, while Birmingham have underperformed, conceding four more goals than their 17.0 xGA would suggest they should have.
Indeed, the title race could come down to attack versus defence.
Birmingham are the second tier’s leading scorers, with 44 goals, overperforming their 38.1 xG, which is another league-high figure. The Blues have had 387 shots, which is 87 more than next-best Palace, whereas Charlton are down on 29 goals scored (league rank sixth) from 25.3 xG (league rank seventh).
Charlton and Birmingham go head-to-head on the final day, in what could be a title decider.
Before then, Birmingham must host relegation-threatened Ipswich Town, while Charlton have to navigate a tricky trip to Southampton.
But Palace are hot on the heels of the top two, just waiting for a slip-up.
The Eagles beat Charlton last time out to make it six games unbeaten. They have also defeated Birmingham twice this season, by an aggregate score of 6-1.
Palace’s poor start to the campaign has set them back (they won just one of their first eight games), but some clinical finishing has helped them keep in the fight.
They have scored 36 goals from chances worth 27.9 xG. That 8.1 overperformance is the third-largest positive differential in the division, after Bristol City (9.0) and Southampton (10.5).
Palace face Sunderland (A) and lowly Portsmouth (H) in their last two games.
Newcastle United, on 33 points, are technically not out of the fight, but they must win both of their last two games – against Bristol City (A) and Durham (H) – while relying on Palace to fail to pick up more than one point, as well as needing a four-goal swing in their favour.
BWSL2 basement battle offers more intrigue
There is a huge game at the bottom of the second tier on Wednesday, as Sheffield United host Ipswich.
Win, and the Blades’ safety will be secure. If Ipswich claim a positive result, though, then the relegation tussle will involve four teams heading into the final two matchdays.
Ipswich have lost their last three games, leaving them on 14 points, above Portsmouth on goal difference only (and by just one goal, too).
A big issue for Ipswich has been their failure to take chances. They have underperformed their 20.2 xG by 3.2, which is the biggest negative xG-to-goal differential in the BWSL2 this term.
Portsmouth may be bottom, but they have overperformed their meagre 14.8 xG – which is the lowest in the division, with Ipswich ranking second worst – by 7.2.
If Pompey can sustain that overachievement in front of goal against Nottingham Forest at home and Palace away, a great escape could be on the cards, though they have picked up just four points from the last 30 on offer.
Like Ipswich, Durham – who sit 10th on 16 points – have won just three league games this season, with two of those victories coming against Portsmouth.
Their current winless run stands at seven league games, with Neil Redfearn’s team taking just three points across that period.
Durham host Sheff Utd before travelling to Newcastle for a derby in their last league game, so their fixtures are not kind either.
Sheff Utd and Durham cannot be overly confident, but they do at least have better defensive records than Ipswich or Portsmouth, conceding 33 and 34 goals, respectively, compared to Ipswich’s 40 and Pompey’s 46.
In such a tight tussle, the fine margins are bound to be vital.
