OptaAnalysis on the BWSL2 Title Race
What does the data say about the three contenders?
A three-horse race for the BWSL2 title race, and to decide which teams are automatically promoted, is going right down to the wire.
Before matchweek 21, Birmingham City were the favourites and leading the way on goal difference, yet a shock 3-0 defeat to Ipswich Town, who have steered themselves to safety with back-to-back wins, threw the tussle for top spot wide open.
Charlton Athletic failed to take full advantage, as they drew 2-2 with Southampton in the wake of Birmingham’s loss on Sunday.
That leaves them on 42 points, one ahead of Birmingham and third-place Crystal Palace, who beat Sunderland 2-1 last time out.
The top two by the end of this coming weekend will be automatically promoted to the BWSL, while third place will have to take on the bottom team in the top flight, which seems likely to be Leicester City, in a high-stakes play-off.
And fittingly, Charlton and Birmingham face off in what is set to be a winner-takes-all clash with the title on the line.
With it all to play for ahead of the final day, we’ve used Opta data to profile the three title contenders.
Charlton Athletic: The Defensive Masters
Charlton’s promotion push and title challenge has been built on a rock-solid defence.
They have conceded a league-low 19 goals – at least five fewer than any other team in the division (Newcastle United and Birmingham rank joint-second on 24).
Charlton’s tally of eight clean sheets also leads the BWSL2, ahead of Birmingham’s seven.
However, it’s worth noting Charlton’s expected goals against (xGA) figure of 21.7 is actually second-best in the competition, behind Birmingham’s 17.4. In other words, Karen Hills’ side have conceded fewer goals in practice than their underlying numbers would suggest.
In contrast, Birmingham have conceded 6.6 goals more than would have been expected based on the quality of chances their opponents have had, and can consider themselves unfortunate not to have secured better results given the control they’ve had on their games.
Only three sides – Sheffield United (-9.7), Nottingham Forest (-7.9) and relegated Portsmouth (-7.6) – have underperformed at the back to a greater degree than Birmingham.
Charlton, by contrast, are the second tier’s biggest overperformers, conceding 2.7 goals fewer than would have been expected.
That is despite Charlton facing 210 shots, some 36 more than Birmingham.
However, through a combination of some good fortune and strong work from their defence when it comes to closing down attempts, Charlton have faced a league-low 66 efforts on target.
Goalkeeper Sophie Whitehouse has also been integral to Charlton conceding fewer goals than expected.
Whitehouse has played a part in all of Charlton’s BWSL2 shutouts this term, and of the goalkeepers to play 300+ minutes, she has the second-best save percentage (71.6%) in the league, second only to Newcastle’s Anna Tamminen (77.5%).
And when it comes to goals prevented, which measures how many goals a goalkeeper actually concedes compared to what they were expected to concede, Whitehouse ranks second in the division, with 3.8, once again behind only Tamminen (4.4).
Going the other way, Charlton have scored only 31 goals, which ranks sixth and well behind Birmingham’s 44.
So, when it comes down to Saturday’s clash between the top two, it could well be a case of attack versus defence, with a title on the line.
Birmingham City: Free-Shooters Missing Clinical Edge?
Birmingham went into their clash with Ipswich last time out knowing their destiny was in their own hands.
All they had to do was beat a team that had been battling at the wrong end of the table, and that would set them up perfectly for their meeting with Charlton.
Instead, Birmingham must now win if they are to clinch the title, and anything but a victory could leave them at risk of failing to secure automatic promotion.
Their form heading into the game against Ipswich was strong: four wins in five games. Yet it all fell apart on Sunday.
Birmingham had a whopping 27 shots – only three times have they had more in a league game this season – and got nine of them on target. They created chances worth 1.91 expected goals (xG), yet their clinical edge deserted them.
Ipswich, on the other hand, had six attempts, got five on target and scored three goals from just 0.43 xG.
Lily Crosthwaite, with eight goals, has been Birmingham’s driving force, but she missed the mark against Ipswich and now the Blues are under significant pressure.
They will need a big performance from their star player against Charlton.
Birmingham are the best attacking team in BWSL2, and they lead the division for goals (44) and xG (40.1).
The Blues have racked up a stunning 104 more shots than any other team (414), with Palace second on 310. Shot volume has clearly not been a problem.
If Birmingham could just have upped their shot conversion rate, however, which comes in at 10.6%, the fourth-lowest in the BWSL2, then the title, and their place in the BWSL for next term, could already be secure. Especially when that is coupled with them being unfortunate to have conceded as many goals at the other end of the pitch.
Birmingham’s charge has been built on dominating matches. Amy Merricks’ team average 59.0% possession, with only Nottingham Forest (59.1%) bettering that.
They have also forced 262 high turnovers, and created 60 shots from such scenarios, netting nine goals.
Their 53 big chances leads the league by eight, but they have converted only 23 of them, with that conversion rate (43.4%) ranking ninth.
Given Charlton’s excellent defensive record, the task for Birmingham is pretty clear: be more clinical, or risk losing out at the very end.
Crystal Palace: Coming on Strong
Palace, relegated from the BWSL last term, made a poor start, winning just one of their first eight league games.
Yet they head into the final day unbeaten in seven, meaning Jo Potter’s team have plenty of momentum.
Palace are only behind Birmingham on goal difference, albeit there is a margin of seven between them (Palace are at +13, whereas Birmingham are on +20).
However, the Eagles host relegated Pompey on the final day, and so while Birmingham and Charlton battle it out, Palace will surely be licking their lips at the prize on offer.
Win, and Palace will be sure of an automatic return to the BWSL. A draw against Pompey could be enough for Palace to go up, as long as the match between Birmingham and Charlton is not drawn.
For Palace to win the league, they would have to beat Pompey and rely on a draw between Birmingham and Charlton, or overturn the big gap in goal difference should the Blues also take three points.
If Palace and Birmingham both lose, then the second automatic promotion place would also come down to goal difference.
Palace have been driven by the brilliant Ashleigh Weerden, who has a joint-league high 14 goal involvements (five goals, nine assists).
Weerden is not their only hope, of course. Abbie Larkin has netted eight times, while Annabel Blanchard has contributed five, with the most recent of those strikes coming in the 2-1 win over Sunderland last weekend.
Palace have had exactly 100 shots on target, which places them fourth in that metric, behind Birmingham (142), Forest (107) and Bristol City (105).
But Palace’s biggest weapon is perhaps their threat from long range.
They have scored 10 goals from outside the area, two more than any other team, and their 113 attempts from outside of the 18-yard box is a tally bettered only by Birmingham’s 149. Not only do Palace love to take on shots from range, they also have the quality to make it count.
Their ability from distance may go some way to explaining their huge 8.5 xG overperformance, with Palace netting 38 goals from 29.5 xG. The only team with a higher positive differential is Southampton (10.4 – 41 goals from 30.6 xG).
Like Birmingham, the Eagles aim to stamp their authority on the opposition. The Blues have had 680 touches in the opposition’s area, at a remarkable rate of 32.3 per game. Palace sit second, on 487 (23.2 per game).
Going the other way, Palace have conceded 25 times, performing on track with their 25.2 xGA.
After such a troubling start to the season, Palace’s rejuvenation since the turn of the year has been nothing short of outstanding, and they are now within touching distance of a place back in the big time.
