OptaAnalyst predicts the BWSL2 Golden Boot Race
With just two full matchdays remaining in the BWSL2 season, six players are tied on eight goals in a thrilling race for the division’s Golden Boot.
Birmingham City’s title charge has been spearheaded by Lily Crosthwaite. Amy Andrews has starred for Sheffield United, while Abbie Larkin’s goals have kept Crystal Palace in with a chance of an immediate return to the top flight.
Durham are two points above the bottom two, and Beth Hepple’s eight strikes have hugely helped their cause. Bristol City have two Golden Boot contenders in their ranks, with Lexi Lloyd-Smith and Rio Hardy rounding out the main challengers as thing stand.
There is also a glut of players – Meg Hornby (Portsmouth), Veatriki Sarri (Birmingham), Kirsty Howat (Palace), Mary Bashford (Southampton) and Chantelle Boye-Hlorkah (Nottingham Forest) – all on seven goals apiece, while a group of five on six goals will also not think they are out of Golden Boot contention just yet, either.
We have delved into the data behind the leading contenders to see if that offers any clues on who is likely to come out on top as the battle to top the scoring charts nears its conclusion.
Extra Game Boosts Andrews’ Chances
Andrews has played 1,704 minutes across 19 appearances in the BWSL2 for the Blades this season, since joining from Durham ahead of the campaign.
The 26-year-old’s 7.49 expected goals (xG) ranks second in the division this term, while only two players – Sarri and Boye-Hlorkah – have managed to get more shots on target than Andrews’ 24. In fact, she has hit the target with exactly half of her 48 attempts.
Andrews’ xG differential of +0.51 suggests she has finished just slightly above what would have been anticipated based on the quality of opportunities that have come her way, but it can be seen as a positive that she is consistently getting into promising goalscoring positions.
Two penalties count towards Andrews’ goal tally, with her most recent strike coming from the spot in a 1-1 draw with Sunderland.
And it is worth noting that her non-penalty xG drops down to 5.3. Five players have registered a higher non-penalty xG this term.
Andrews has scored seven of her eight goals from inside the penalty area, with six coming from her right foot, one with her left and one with her head.
She has had 12 big chances, defined by Opta as a position from which a player would reasonably be expected to score, three more than any other player, while she has scored six of them, level with Emily Scarr at the top of those charts.
When it comes to the Golden Boot race, Andrews does have a slight advantage, given the Blades have an extra game to play. They take on Ipswich Town next week – a match that could have a big say in how the relegation battle shapes up, with United hovering only four points above the bottom two.
However, her 213 minutes per goal is the second-worst such ratio of the six contenders on this list, so she will need to up that rate in the final three matches to get her hands on the prize.
Lloyd-Smith’s Exceptional Finishing Making the Difference
Lloyd-Smith is no stranger to a strong season in the second tier.
Last season, she scored 10 times for Bristol City, registering an impressive 23.8% shot conversion rate and finishing third on the top scorers list, behind Isobel Goodwin of London City Lionesses (16 goals) and Shania Hayles of Newcastle United (15 goals).
And she is right in the mix again.
Lloyd-Smith has hugely outperformed her 4.14 xG by 3.86, displaying a high level of finishing.
The 23-year-old has converted three of the four big chances that have come her way, and unlike Andrews, has not taken any spot-kicks in the league this season.
Her two goals from outside the box show Lloyd-Smith carries a threat from range, too, and go some way to explaining her xG overperformance. A strike against Sheffield United earlier in the campaign is one of the biggest highlights of this BWSL2 season.
She has averaged a goal every 165 minutes, while her 0.55 goals per 90 is the highest rate of any player on this list, with all but one of her strikes coming from her trusty right foot.
Though her last five appearances have only yielded one goal, Lloyd-Smith has generally ensured a steady stream of strikes throughout the season, and her ability shooting from outside the box means she has a strong chance to top the charts by the time the campaign ends.
Bristol City are entrenched in mid-table, and they face Newcastle United before taking on Sheffield United to round off the season. Will that latter fixture prove to be a Golden Boot decider?
Hardy Leads BWSL2 for xG Despite Recent Slowdown
Of the six main contenders, Hardy has the lowest xG differential (+0.26). Essentially, she has performed almost exactly on track when it comes to what would be anticipated based on the chances that have come her way.
Hardy leads the BWSL2 for xG (7.74), though like Andrews, she has converted two penalties. Her non-penalty xG stands at 5.54, ranking fifth in the division.
That being said, she has netted only once across her last seven appearances in the league, so she is out of scoring form at a bad time when it comes to her Golden Boot chances.
The 29-year-old’s eight goals have all come from shots from inside the area, but she has proved clinical with each foot.
Her goals have been split evenly between her left and her right foot, while only one of the BWSL2’s joint-top scorers – Hornby (6) – has scored more often with their right foot than Hardy (4) this term. She has averaged a league goal every 179 minutes in 2025-26.
Hepple Tough to Beat if the Chances Come Her Way
Hepple has netted six non-penalty goals, outperforming her 4.1 non-penalty xG by 1.9. Like Hardy, Hepple has scored each of her goals from inside the area.
And interestingly, of these six contenders, Hepple boasts the best shot conversion rate, having scored with 27.6% of her 29 attempts, 14 of which have been on target.
Her overall xG differential stands at an impressive 2.45, so while she may not shoot as regularly as some of the other players on this list, the 29-year-old has been extremely clinical when the chances come her way.
However, Hepple has scored only one goal in her last eight BWSL2 games, with six of her strikes having come prior to the turn of the year.
At 0.4 goals per 90, Hepple also has the lowest such rate of the six primary contenders for the BWSL2 Golden Boot.
She has averaged a goal every 225 minutes, having made 20 starts for Durham, who sit 10th in the table as it stands.
That is partly explained by Durham having scored just 24 league goals this season, more than only Portsmouth (22), Sheffield United (19) and Ipswich Town (17) – all the teams around them at the bottom of the standings.
That means Hepple has accounted for a third of Durham’s league goals, and whether or not her team-mates are able to provide her with enough opportunities over the final games could prove to be the decisive factor.
Hepple also scored six times in the BWSL2 last term, so she is proving a reliable scorer at this level.
Durham host Sheffield United before rounding out their campaign with a North East derby against Newcastle United, so Hepple is sure to be eager to be a difference maker in those contests.
Larkin Proving a Threat from All Areas
Palace sit third heading into their final two matches, three points off Birmingham and Charlton.
They are the fourth-highest scorers in the BWSL2, and Larkin has been sensational, with her eight goals coming from 19 appearances, but just 15 starts (of the players on this list, only Lloyd-Smith (14) has started fewer games).
Like Lloyd-Smith, Larkin is more than capable from distance, scoring a joint-league high three goals from outside the area. She is also an aerial threat, having converted two headers – more than any of her fellow Golden Boot contenders.
Unsurprisingly, given her low figure of 15 starts, Larkin’s minutes-per-goal ratio of 176 is the best of any of these six players.
Larkin is never afraid to shoot. In fact, her 52 attempts tops these players, while only three others – Boye-Hlorkah (73), Veatriki (61) and Annabel Blanchard (54) – in the entire division have tried their luck more often this season. Only three players can better Larkin’s 20 shots on target, too.
Of the BWSL2 stars level on eight goals, Larkin’s 3.3 shots per 90 ranks clear of second-best Lloyd-Smith (2.7), while her 1.3 shots on target per 90 is level with Andrews’.
Larkin has averaged 0.51 big chances per 90 and has converted from an impressive 0.32 big chances per 90, which leads the way in this group of players, along with Andrews.
Her 2.28 positive xG differential shows the high-calibre of Larkin’s finishing, and with Palace pushing for promotion, they face Sunderland and then struggling Portsmouth next.
Larkin, who has scored four goals in nine games since the turn of the year to give her significant momentum coming into the run-in, will be hoping to fire Palace to an immediate return to the big time.
Crosthwaite Finding Form at the Perfect Time
With a +4 positive xG differential, Crosthwaite – the leading scorer for the division’s top side as it stands – is the most clinical of all these contenders.
The 23-year-old, who has made 19 appearances, has averaged a league goal every 187 minutes this term, converting an impressive 24.2% of her 33 shots.
Being part of such a strong attacking team has helped. Birmingham are the BWSL2’s highest scorers (44 goals), having also registered a league-leading 38.1 xG.
They have got off 387 shots – 87 more than next-best Crystal Palace – with 133 of those hitting the target. Their big chance total stands at 50, nine more than any other side (Southampton – 41).
However, the goals have tailed off as of late – since 1 February, Birmingham have scored over once in just one game – but in Crosthwaite, they have one of the BWSL2’s standout youngsters.
She scored in recent wins over Sheffield United and Sunderland, so with two goals in her last three appearances, Crosthwaite is back in form at just the right time, even as her team is losing some scoring momentum.
Crosthwaite’s xG against Sunderland was just 0.09 (from two shots), while against Sheffield United it was only 0.04 from one attempt.
If she can up that shot count across Birmingham’s final two outings – they host Ipswich before going up against Charlton in what looks likely to be a title-decider – then she is arguably the Golden Boot favourite, and that could just be enough to propel the Blues into the top tier, too.
Word credit: OptaAnalyst
